A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
